Category Archives: Foresight & Future Challenges

The Status of Bioenergy in Brazil

By Gilberto Silber Schmidt

Labex Korea – Brazil is one of the largest countries in the world, with an extensive surface of continuous land, a large supply of fresh water, abundant solar energy, and a rich biodiversity. The wide range of climatic conditions, from temperate to tropical, together with advanced capacity in technology development, allowed considerable diversification of agriculture systems, making Brazil an important producer of food, feed, fibers and renewable fuels …. Read More

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The seven challenges of agribusiness – the journey of the next 10 years

By Jose Luiz Tejon Megido

With much more sensors being invented and used in the world, we began to listen, measure and know things which we ignored. More traceability, more sensory analysis, there will go in agribusiness with one of the challenges from the 7, of significant importance and predominance: THE AVATAR’s KINGDOM. A generation of customers and consumers become more sensitive and sensitized by the information for the sustainability on all levels. The Coca Cola Company has examined the lots of orange juice, that takes to process your refrigerants, and residues of Carbendazin are detected, for example. This defensive is used to control black spot in orange. The orange becomes not esthetic, but the healthful aspect goes to count. And if there is anything that Coca Cola, and all processors and retail networks of the world, do not want is to have trouble with complaints and health risks of their customers. Therefore, the discussion is established, the technicians will discuss, if 30 parts per billion in orange, is harmful or not, and why that Japan accept 3,000, and Europe 200 parts per billion, and what to do with The United States that rule is zero or 10, which is practically zero? An increased challenge is exactly that of the sensors and the expansion of sensibility and very low thresholds to the question of human and the planet health.

The second challenge is about the agricultural lands. The world must double food supplies and renewable energy. FAO’s data show that 70% of this increase will come from the technology, 10% of the intensity of agricultural cycles in the same area and the remaining 20%, Yeah these – from new agricultural areas. It means, the land became too worth gold. The expansion of new frontiers has been limited and the relation of ownership of agricultural lands has different story, one of the most valuated active in the world over the last 5 years. Brazil is beside the Sudan in Africa, are the two biggest reserves on the planet, in this regard.

The third challenge is the population: people. The population grows in proportion to of 4 new births per second. We will be 9 billion, we already are 7 billion. And this new habitant is fully connected and interconnected. The Internet expands the situational ethics of the past, and in addition to cellular phones connection, computers, televisions, it is coming now the new Internet of things. It mean, in the shower, microwave, on the stove, on the car, etc. The fourth challenge is not only food production, which should double, but their quality. The raw materials produced from the field begin to be more import perceived in the analysis of the marks of processors and distributors of food, fiber, energy, protein and other derivatives of agribusiness. Food and energy, their production, distribution and perception of the interconnected markets become a new challenge for the management of the entire value chain, from the first, passing through the inside and by post farms gate.

The fifth challenge, the innovation, the adoption and the management of technology and its life cycle. The problem is not count with an advanced technology, is that we need to have over than one. This diversity technology advances will require of the farms, industry, chemistry, mechanics, genetics, and processors a level of “on-line” dialog. The academic area, school and public research cannot resist to the absence of speed as well as agribusiness governance will be more based on the sectorial advice. In the technology, the stock of local germoplasms will be a factor of risk management and the environmental security, political and national interest.

The 6th challenge is the question: Who will be the farmer in 2022? In the next 10 years, who will be, as will be, how many will exist? Which segments, the clusters? Which the human competences of this new situation of producers for the next 10 years?  The present became the result of the future. What we have now, which signals that we captured in this moment that show the journey and the window for tomorrow. Anticipating the movements is a key challenge for all the agents involved in agribusiness, and that will be fundamental to the construction of “brands” that resist the time. Product is what we do in the industry or on the field; brand is that we built in the mind passionate human. And if the producer is the universe to be reviewed, including the unpredictability of the world cyclical, where a European crisis, for example, we begin to see an contrary exodus: urban abandon the cities and start new businesses in the field; the old “farms” are now seen as sources of quality of life and also, entrepreneurship; If all that is a set of questions that most intrigue the current executives of agribusiness managers, here comes the 7th challenge: Marketing. The good old marketing: agribusiness without marketing is just agriculture, no deal, which means to place the human mind of all the stakeholders at the center of the table of business decisions and of the agribusiness. How much we know of this army of new customers arising from the base of the pyramid planetary? Of these current 7 billion, almost half are new entrants. If the pasta, for example, has capillarity and penetration in a 100% of Brazil’s households, and we are the 3rd largest world market on the masses, is now, with the ascension of C class, almost 100 millions of consumers greedy for the consumerist wishes that began to have the penetration of new stuffed pasta. The “spaghetti” to the cannelloni is the journey that is already in fast penetration. And, as in meat, milk, vegetables and fruits, fiber, sugar, cocoa, rice … or rubber trees.

Land, people, food and energy, the Kingdom of Avatar, technology, the producer of the future, and the marketing. The synthesis of the 7 challenges of the agribusiness. How will be 2022? 10 years ahead of our time?

The dialogue with society is a factor “sine qua non” the part of all agents involved on agribusiness, and build company with a new pedagogical intelligence becomes vital. In the old education we were first driven to think, and then do and if get one day in the life: feeling. The playful expression, modern, begins with the art of to do, in doing feel, feeling we think. This prudence is sacred for not fall in large errors of the decisions of leaders well-intentioned, but who fall in the sin of distractions.

The speed changed, is nearly instantaneous, and all of these seven macro challenges of the agribusiness must be packaged for the high speed of a new hybrid: do, feel and think.

Jose Luiz Tejon Megiddo – Vice President of Communications CCAS – Scientific Council for Sustainable Agriculture / Commentator of Network Estadão and  ESPN

Source:  Alfapress

Click here to read the Portuguese original version of this article published at Avicultura Industrial, January 17th, 2012

Translated by  Gilberto Silber Schmidt

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Organic covering protects fruit, vegetables and meat

Source: Revista Fapesp

The great novelty about the new type of packaging is that the consumer does not have to remove it. It can be eaten without causing any harm to health because it is not metabolized by human organism and passes through the gastro-intestinal tract harmlessly. The packaging serves to prolong the shelf-life of fruit, dairy products, meat, fish and other perishable foodstuffs, maintaining their structural integrity and protecting them from the micro-organisms that cause product degradation. This innovation forms part of a study carried out in a partnership between Brazilian and Portuguese researchers for developing edible films and coatings on a micrometric and nanometric scale for use with food.

Source: FAPESP, October 18th, 2011

Click here to read the complete version of this article

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We need to talk about nitrogen

The global nitrogen cycle spins faster and faster, as mankind releases more reactive nitrogen into the environment than natural processes do. Can nature keep up, or is this another global disaster following in the footsteps of the carbon dioxide problem? Michael Gross investigates.

Source: Cell

Click here to read the complete version of this article published at  Cell

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The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture

A paper recently published in the International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability identifies the top 100 questions of importance for the future of global agriculture.

A multi-disciplinary team of senior representatives and experts from the world’s major agricultural organizations, professional scientific societies and academic institutions from 23 countries was selected to form a Core Group of experts to identify the top 100 questions for global agriculture and food.

From an initial list of 618 key questions the experts selected to the top 100, over the course of one year of work.  The questions cover 14 themes identified as priority to global agriculture.

The experts involved in the study believe that “these questions will have a significant impact on global agricultural practices worldwide, while improving the synergy between agricultural policy, practice and research”. The study is part of the UK Government’s Foresight Project on Global Food and Farming Futures, that will publish its findings in early 2011.

See below the Journal Reference and the link to access the paper:

Jules Pretty, William J. Sutherland, Jacqueline Ashby, Jill Auburn, David Baulcombe, Michael Bell, Jeffrey Bentley, Sam Bickersteth, Katrina Brown, Jacob Burke, Hugh Campbell, Kevin Chen, Eve Crowley, Ian Crute, Dirk Dobbelaere, Gareth Edwards-Jones, Fernando Funes-Monzote, H. Charles J. Godfray, Michel Griffon, Phrek Gypmantisiri, Lawrence Haddad, Siosiua Halavatau, Hans Herren, Mark Holderness, Anne-Marie Izac, Monty Jones, Parviz Koohafkan, Rattan Lal, Timothy Lang, Jeffrey McNeely, Alexander Mueller, Nicholas Nisbett, Andrew Noble, Prabhu Pingali, Yvonne Pinto, Rudy Rabbinge, N. H. Ravindranath, Agnes Rola, Niels Roling, Colin Sage, William Settle, J. M. Sha, Luo Shiming, Tony Simons, Pete Smith, Kenneth Strzepeck, Harry Swaine, Eugene Terry, Thomas P. Tomich, Camilla Toulmin, Eduardo Trigo, Stephen Twomlow, Jan Kees Vis, Jeremy Wilson, Sarah Pilgrim. The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 2010; 8 (4): 219 DOI: 10.3763/ijas.2010.0534

Special Reports Round-up

A number of interesting and relevant reports have come out recently covering issues related to Science, Technology and Innovation, Future Studies, International Cooperation, among many other topics of interest. Readers can check them out below. Links are provided for viewing and downloading the corresponding PDF files directly from the sources. Enjoy!

The UNESCO Science Report 2010 (USR) was launched on World Science Day on 10 November 2010. The report is a “global overview of the main developments in scientific research, innovation and higher education since its predecessor was published in 2005. It blends facts and figures with an analysis of the major trends in global expenditure on research and development, scientific personnel and scientific publications.” Click here to access the full report.

Europeans and Biotechnology in 2010 – Winds of change? This is a report to the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research, published in October 2010. It is a result of a survey on the Life Sciences and Biotechnology, which also specifically addresses nanotechnologies in the context of biotechnology. Results are based on representative samples from 32 European countries and point that the restrictive view about GM food that characterised the 1990s is no longer the dominant perspective. Click here to access the full report.

“No-Till” Farming Is a Growing Practice. In order to help policymakers and other interested parties better understand U.S. tillage practices and, especially, those practices’ potential contribution to climate-change efforts, researchers from the Economic Research Service – ERS-USDA compiled data showing that approximately 35.5 percent of U.S. cropland planted to eight major crops, or 88 million acres, had no tillage operations in 2009. Click here to access the full report.

Science and Innovation for Development, by Professor Sir Gordon Conway and Professor Jeff Waage, with Sara Delaney. Published by UKCDS in January 2010. The book contains reviews of different technologies relating to development, using the Millenium Development Goals as reference. The focus is on agriculture, environment and health and the authors discuss how scientific education, knowledge and research are crucial to solving development challenges. Click here to access the book.

The Super-Cycle Report, published by the Standard Chartered Bank argues that we are in a new ‘super-cycle’ driven by the industrialisation and urbanisation of emerging markets, and global trade. Super-cycle is defined as a ‘a period of historically high global growth, lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment, urbanisation and technological innovation.  It is characterised by the emergence of large, new economies, first seen in high catch-up growth rates across the emerging world’. Click here to access the full report.

“Climate-Smart” Agriculture – Policies, Practices and Financing for Food Security, Adaptation and Mitigation. This document was prepared by FAO as a technical input for the Hague Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change,  held from 31 October to 5 November 2010. It argues that “developing climate-smart agriculture is crucial to achieving future food security and climate change goals”. This report examines some of the key technical, institutional, policy and financial responses required to achieve this transformation. Click here to access the full document.

Futures of Technology in Africa. The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends -STT explores futures at the crossroads of technology and society.This book is the result of an STT foresight on technology in Africa. The underlying question for the study was how new technology would affect the poorest societies rather than the richest, those with least access to technology rather than those surrounded by the latest inventions. Click here to access the full document.

Integrated Farming Systems – The past or the future? This study, sponsored by Nuffield Australia and Rabobank Australi, investigates the resource and economic sustainability of integrated (mixed) farming systems in Australia. Also, it aims to understand the role sustainable farming practises play in leading farming businesses both now and into the future. And it seeks to answer if “sustainable” farm businesses integrate beyond the farm gate as a means of improving their farm profits and sustainability outcomes. Click here to access the full document.

The future of research – This publication has been produced by Universities UK, which is the representative organisation that seek to promote the strength and success of UK universities nationally and internationally. This report considers how the UK’s research community – the funders, enablers and supporters of research – can work together to build on, maintain and enhance the world-leading science and research in the United Kingdom. Click here to access the full document.

A World Bank Paper on “Advanced Biofuel Technologies – Status and Barriers”

A recently published World Bank Paper, by Jay Cheng and Govinda R. Timilsina, reviewed the development of second-generation biofuels from non-food biomass.  It argues that, in the short term, commercial use of advanced biofuel technologies faces major technical barriers, so that any large-scale production of second generation biofuels will depend on whether new research and development can substantially reduce technical and economic barriers.  See below the abstract for this Working paper as well as the link to access the PDF file.

“Large-scale production of crop based (first generation) biofuels may not be feasible without adversely affecting global food supply or encroaching on other important land uses. Because alternatives to liquid fossil fuels are important to develop in order to address greenhouse gas mitigation and other energy policy objectives, the potential for increased use of advanced (non-crop, second generation) biofuel production technologies has significant policy relevance. This study reviews the current status of several advanced biofuel technologies. Technically, it would be possible to produce a large portion of transportation fuels using advanced biofuel technologies, specifically those that can be grown using a small portion of the world’s land area (for example, microalgae), or those grown on arable lands without affecting food supply (for example, agricultural residues). However, serious technical barriers limit the near-term commercial application of advanced biofuels technologies. Key technical barriers include low conversion efficiency from biomass to fuel, limits on supply of key enzymes used in conversion, large energy requirements for operation, and dependence in many cases on commercially unproven technology. Despite a large future potential, large-scale expansion of advanced biofuels technologies is unlikely unless and until further research and development lead to lowering these barriers.”

Click here to access this World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5411.

Read also a companion Policy Research Working Paper 5406, “Second-Generation Biofuels – Economics and Policies” by Carriquiry, Du and Timilsina, 2010.  The PDF file can be downloaded from here.

Special Outlook Reports

Readers will find below a selection of recently published special reports with practical and authoritative analysis of key international issues, such as climate change, renewable energy, intellectual property, science policy, biotechnology, sustainable development, among others. 

Click the titles below to access and download the corresponding PDF files. 

Enjoy the reading!

Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010 – Main report released at the start of the latest biennial meeting of the FAO Committee on Forestry and World Forest Week, in Rome.  Food And Agriculture Organization of the United Nations – FAO, October, 2010

Who Owns Our Low Carbon Future?
Intellectual Property and Energy Technologies – A Chatham House Report, by Bernice Lee, Ilian Iliev and Felix Preston.  September 2009

Australian Sustainable Energy – Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Plan – Published by the University of Melbourne – Energy Research Institute, Victoria, Australia, 2010.

Global Forum Action Plan - Science, Technology and Innovation Capacity Building Partnerships for Sustainable Development.  A document produced by the World Bank’s STI Global Expert Team (STI GET). September, 2010.

Patented in China – the Present and Future State of Innovation in Chinaby Eve Y. Zhou and Bob Stembridge. Thomson Reuters, 2010.
Registration may be required to view and to download the report.

The Food System – a prism of present and future challenges for health promotion and sustainable development - White Paper – Triggering Debate – Health Promotion Switzerland, 2010.

Growth and sustainability in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa.   A report based on the proceedings of a conference, organised by the OECD, on the growth performance of these large emerging-market economies. OECD Report, 2010.

Patents and clean energy: bridging the gap between evidence and policyUNEP Report, 2010.
Click here to read and download the summary of the report.
Click here to read and download the full report.

Climate change: a summary of the science
A document prepared by a working group chaired by Professor John Pethica, Vice President of the Royal Society and approved by the Royal Society Council. The Royal Society, Science Policy Centre, UK. September 2010

Breeding Business. The future of plant breeding in the light of developments in patent rights and plant breeding rights.  Centre for Genetic Resources, the Netherlands (CGN).  December 2009.

Research for Development – A World Bank Perspective on Future Directions for Research.  Policy Research Working Paper 5437.  This paper provides an overview of the history of development research at the World Bank and points to new future directions.   World Bank.  September 2010.

Continue reading

Food Security: Feeding the World in 2050

A set of 21 papers covering a wide range of issues related to food security has been published in a special open access edition of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, UK.

This special issue has been compiled and edited by H. Charles J. Godfray, John R. Beddington, Ian R. Crute, Lawrence Haddad, David Lawrence, James F. Muir, Jules Pretty, Sherman Robinson and Camilla Toulmin.

Scientists from many disciplines and countries authored the papers, that are part of a UK government foresight study on the future of the global food industry.  The final report will be published later this year in advance of the UN climate talks in Cancun, Mexico.

Click here to open the table of contents or click the titles below to access HTML and PDF versions of each original article:

Preface
Global food and farming futures

Introduction
The future of the global food system

Articles
Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

Food consumption trends and drivers

Urbanization and its implications for food and farming

Income distribution trends and future food demand

Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050

Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects

Food security and marine capture fisheries: characteristics, trends, drivers and future perspectives

Inland capture fisheries

Aquaculture: global status and trends

The roles and values of wild foods in agricultural systems

Competition for water for the food system

Competition for land

Ecosystem services and agriculture: tradeoffs and synergies

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century

Energy and the food system

Globalization’s effects on world agricultural trade, 1960–2050

Food price volatility

Agricultural R&D, technology and productivity

Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling

Food waste within food supply chains: quantification and potential for change to 2050

Feeding the world healthily: the challenge of measuring the effects of agriculture on health

Special Outlook Reports

Labex Korea has selected a list of ten recent special reports with practical and authoritative analysis of key international issues, such as climate change, renewable energy, intellectual property, science policy, biotechnology, etc.  See below a short description for each report as well as the links to access and download the corresponding PDF files.  Enjoy! 

Brazil Low-carbon Country Case Study – 2010.  This is the first national multisectoral analytical work on emissions mitigation opportunities in Brazil, developed by the World Bank Group in close coordination with the Government of Brazil sectoral public agencies and institutions, such as CEAF, CETESB, COPPE-UFRJ, CPTEC/INPE, EMBRAPA, UFMG, ICONE  INICIATIVA  VERDE, INT, LOGIT, PLANTAR, UNICAMP and USP.  Click here to access this report.

Agriculture’s Role in Greenhouse Gas Emissions & Capture – 2010.  This report examines the evidence for greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in the major U.S. agroecosystems.  It summarizes current knowledge of GHG emissions and capture as influenced by cropping systems, tillage management practices and nutrient source. Also, topics requiring further research have been identified.  Click here to access this report.

Beyond borders – Global Biotechnology Report 2010.  This is the the Ernst & Young’s 24th annual report on the biotechnology industry.  It shows that “the global biotechnology industry was able to deliver a strong financial performance in 2009, with the world’s established biotech centers reaching profitability for the first time in history. However, the gap between the “haves” and “have nots” in the industry continued to widen in 2009, posing new challenges for emerging companies in accessing the capital needed for R&D”.  Click here to learn more and here to access this report.

The Renewables 2010 Global Status Report provides an integrated perspective on the global renewable energy situation.  “Since the first Global Status Report was produced five years ago, the analysis has become the most frequently referenced on renewable energy business and policy, serving a wide range of audiences from investors and government decision makers to students, project developers, researchers, and industrial manufacturers. It provides testimony of the undeterred growth of electricity, heat, and fuel production capacities from renewable energy sources, including solar PV, wind power, solar hot water/heating, biofuels, hydropower, and geothermal.”  Click here to learn more and here to access the report.

The New Frontier in Sustainability – 2010.  This report was produced by BSR, a corporate responsibility organization that works with a global network of more than 250 member companies to develop sustainable business strategies and solutions through consulting, research, and cross-sector collaboration.  The purpose of the report is to highlight opportunities for business to address sustainable consumption.  It raises questions, insights and awareness about the enormity of the challenges we face to promote economic growth without causing immense environmental disruption in the future.  Click here to access this report.

Australia´s State of Climate – 2010.  This report provides observations and analysis of Australia’s climate and the factors that influence it. Two organisations, CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have combined to present this current picture of Australia’s climate.  The Bureau of Meteorology has been observing and reporting on weather in Australia for over 100 years, and CSIRO has been conducting atmospheric and marine research for over 60 years. The snapshot is sourced from peer reviewed data on temperature, rainfall, sea level, ocean acidification, and carbon dioxide and methane levels in the atmosphere.  Click here to learn more and here to download the report.

The Science of Climate Change August 2010 – Questions and Answers.  Published by the Australian Academy of Science, this report provides a firmer basis for understanding the science of climate change and its implications.  The publication is useful to clear up confusions created by contradictory information available in the public domain.  Organized in a Q&A style, it provides authoritative answers to many questions on the science of climate change.  A useful resource to help improve understanding of the science upon which policies response on the subject should be based.  Click here to access the report.

Illegal Logging and Related Trade – Indicators of the Global Response 2010.  This report, sponsored by Chatham House (The Royal Institute of International Affairs), shows that illegal logging is estimated to have fallen during the last decade between 50 and 75 per cent in the Brazilian Amazon. Brazil also scored the highest, among the countries analyzed, in many important areas of government response, thanks to a major overhaul of laws, policies and regulations to prevent deforestation during the last five years.  Click here to access the report.

A Snapshot Guide to Intellectual Property Systems.  This is a collective work of professionals from the National Partners Initiative, a forum of the CGIAR Central Advisory Service on Intellectual Property.  The Compendium contains IP systems information from 15 countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America.  Please note the disclaimer that the compendium is not an official representation for the IP systems highlighted. However, links are provided so that the proper governmental offices can be contacted.  Click here to access the document.

Building a low-carbon Economy – the UK’s Innovation Challenge 2010.  In order to build a low carbon economy and meet carbon budgets, the UK will need  access to new technologies. This requires public sector investment in all stages of the innovation process from Research, through Development and Demonstration to Deployment (RDD&D). This report consider the effectiveness of current policy measures and institutional arrangements to deliver the technologies required to meet the UK’s 2050 emissions target. Click here to learn more and here to access the report.